Agenda item

To receive and consider the 2022/23 Revenue Monitoring report.

The Forum received the 2022/23 Revenue Monitoring Report which provided an update on the 2022/23 Dedicated Schools Grant (DSG) forecast, as at 31^st May 2022.

During the discussion of this item, the following points were made:

·       At the time of budget setting a deficit of £4.1million was anticipated on the DSG for 2022/23 largely as a result of ongoing financial challenges within the High Needs Block. 

·       The current forecast had moved by £400,000 and now projected a deficit of £4.5million.

·       The movement represented updated assumptions within the High Needs Block on changes for the new academic year in September, along with increases in activity, particularly for those in Early Years Foundation Stage and entering Key Stage 1.

·       The Forum was informed that the cumulative forecast for the DSG now projected a cumulative deficit of £14.5million to 31^st March 2023.  However, there were significant key risks over and above that, of £1.7million.

·       With regards to the High Needs Block, there had been increases in expenditure forecast and also refinement of income forecast which partly offset the cost increases.

·       Within special schools there had been an increase in the assumption forecast for Addington because of a number of existing pupils moving banding levels at the point of review.  The Council was committed to ensuring the financial sustainability of Addington, recognising it as a vital local provision within the SEND Strategy, and joint work would continue to inform early planning for the 2023/24 financial year and beyond.

·       There was a forecast increase of £223,000 for Post 16 full time education colleges due to increasing numbers.  Lynne Samuel commented that there were some older individuals within the cohort where costed arrangements for the 2022/23 academic year were not yet known.  These had been included in the forecast on the assumption that existing costs would continue to the end of the financial year.  There was therefore some scope for this forecast to reduce.

·       The Forum considered the key risks to the High Needs Block forecast.  There were a number of unplaced pupils for September and a considerable amount of work was being undertaken to resolve this.  Some of these pupils had current funded top ups so had been included in the forecast with their current setting and funding arrangements.  There was both risk and opportunities around this.  However, there was an increasing number of very young children coming through that did not currently have a funding arrangement in place.

·       Activity in the SEND service had increased significantly.  Current indications from assessment activity were for potentially an additional 30 EHCPs per month.  Profiling those across the year at a range of average costs indicated a potential in-year risk not currently included in the forecast of around £1.7million.

·       Pupil level information informed the forecast.  This process was largely manual and time consuming.  Assumptions were then built into this.  For the first time at this point in the year, Officers had been able to build in phased transfer information into the forecast from September.

·       It was noted that in April 2021 there were 4 Early Years funded top ups in mainstream settings.  This had since increased to 46 by April 2022.

·       In early June a snapshot showed of 128 individuals within the statutory assessment process, 70 of these were Early Years.

·       Growth fund and contingencies was still subject to review as place planning requirements are worked through.

·       Derren Gray advised that the figure for Piggott for the Growth Fund forecast for July 2022, should read 46 not 34.  He went on to question whether the five twelfths allocation had been paid to the primary and secondary schools and was informed that they had.

·       The Chairman suggested that the £1.7million should be shown, either built into the forecast or as a separate line.  He asked that the date be added to the header of the tables in future.

RESOLVED:  That the contents of the report, update on the forecast position for the 2022/23 financial year along with associated risks, be noted.